Two competing reports on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports were released this week, presenting a classic case of dueling narratives: one from the Biden Administration’s Department of Energy (DOE), the other from independent analysts at S&P Global.

While DOE’s report follows its controversial LNG export pause and feels suspiciously cherry-picked, S&P Global delivers a reality check grounded in credible data.

Regardless, “it’s time to end this blatant political charade from the Biden administration and start processing LNG export permits,” Marcellus Shale Coalition president David Callahan said in a statement.

“Lifting the permit freeze helps the U.S. achieve both domestic and international policy goals. Abroad, U.S. LNG exports enhance energy security and environmental advancement. At home, exports promote jobs across the natural gas value chain and deliver energy savings for consumers.”

DOE’s Hand-Picked Findings

The Biden Administration’s report attempts to justify the ongoing pause on LNG export permits, chief among them being alleged adverse impacts to consumers and the climate. After much anticipation, the report’s findings were so lackluster that DOE masked it with a 3-page “statement” from Secretary Granholm riddled with contradictory claims that ignore more plausible scenarios and even contradict the very contents of the analysis.

Despite nearly a decade of real-world data showing no consistent link between increased LNG exports and higher domestic natural gas prices, Secretary Granholm makes alarmist predictions and warns of a 30% price hike by 2050. Yet in the very same statement, she notes American consumers and businesses have benefitted from “relatively stable natural gas prices domestically” in recent years. Indeed, an MSC analysis of pricing data from the PA Public Utility Commission shows that Pennsylvania consumers saved over $8.9 Billion just in 2023 alone compared to pre-Marcellus Shale prices 15 years earlier.

And what’s happened in those recent years? The U.S. became the world’s top producer and exporter of natural gas. History – and market analysts – show wholesale natural gas prices have remained relatively flat in the years since the U.S. started exporting LNG. Increased demand simply means tapping into the vast supplies of clean, domestic energy resources Pennsylvania has to offer – it doesn’t mean higher prices for consumers.

“Since 2016, when the United States started exporting LNG in larger quantities, domestic natural gas prices have stayed stable and relatively low, except for the occasional external factor like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” a Congressional Research Service report from earlier this year notes.

Despite the Administration’s implicit suggestion that LNG exports harm domestic prices, the reality is quite the opposite: Americans have enjoyed stable energy costs while LNG exports grew exponentially.

More: Rising LNG Exports Have “Little to No” Impact on Domestic Energy Prices, Experts Say

Another oversight in the Administration’s diluted claims is that European and Asian buyers either don’t want our LNG or that U.S LNG won’t blunt coal use.

This flies directly in the face of the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s warning just last month that LNG from the U.S. is foundational to a more secure geopolitical future, particularly for the European and Asian markets.

More: IEA Calls for More U.S. Gas & Infrastructure to Ease Geopolitical Woes

The Asian Natural Gas Energy Association (ANGEA) denounced Granholm’s claims almost immediately after the study was published.

“U.S. LNG is not being used by emerging Asia as a replacement for investments in renewable energy. It is being used as a replacement for coal to provide energy security and reliable electricity, both of which actually support growth in renewable energy generation,” ANGEA CEO Everingham said.

And ironically, the European Union raised concerns just weeks ago over the ability to fully wean themselves off of Russian energy, citing a need for U.S. LNG to meet reliability and sustainability goals. The effect of the Biden LNG export license ban has led to one reality: our European allies having to look to Russian and Vladimir Putin for their gas supply.

More: Reports Confirm U.S. LNG Benefits as Biden’s Permit Freeze Perpetuates

S&P’s Reality Check

On the other hand, the S&P Global study offers a more comprehensive and balanced view, freed from political or electoral ramifications. Based on rigorous analysis, the report reinforces the economic, environmental and geopolitical benefits of U.S. LNG exports, confirming:

  • “Negligible” Impact on U.S. Energy Costs: Unlocking the paused U.S. LNG exports would have a minimal impact on domestic natural gas prices, increasing costs by less than 1% for American households. The price spikes scare tactic Secretary Granholm uses simply does not hold up to scrutiny. Again, Pennsylvania consumers are already benefitting from natural gas supply costs that remain 35% – 86% lower than 2008 pre-Marcellus prices.
  • Global Energy Gap Would Be Met by Dirtier Alternatives: If U.S. LNG exports remain restricted, 85% of the resulting global energy gap would be filled by other fossil fuels, primarily from non-U.S. sources such as alternative LNG and coal. In other words: eliminating U.S. LNG exports will increase global emissions, not reduce them.
  • Significant Economic Contributions: Since 2016, the U.S. LNG industry has contributed an astounding $408 billion to the U.S. GDP, while supporting an average of 273,000 jobs across the country. These are real economic benefits that ripple through communities nationwide.
  • Critical Global Energy Leadership: The United States has emerged as the #1 global supplier of LNG, playing a pivotal role in meeting the world’s energy needs. U.S. LNG replaced nearly half of the Russian natural gas lost in Europe following the Ukraine crisis—an accomplishment that strengthened global energy security.
  • Meeting Global Demand: Annual U.S. LNG exports are equivalent to the energy needed to heat over 80% of European Union households for an entire year. This underscores the sheer scale and importance of U.S. LNG in the global energy equation.

The Biden Administration’s talking points on LNG exports have been recycled time and again, despite overwhelming evidence that exporting natural gas to our allies is good for the economy, good for the environment, and good for our national security.